中国热带海-气相互作用与ENSO动力学及预测研究进展     

任宏利  郑飞  罗京佳  王润  刘明竑  张文君  周天军  周广庆 《气象学报》2020,78(3):351-369

国际上针对海洋-大气系统的观测、理论和模拟方面已经开展了广泛而深入的研究,为短期气候预测水平的不断提升奠定了坚实基础,这其中中国学者做出了许多重要贡献。文中简要回顾了中国学者70年来在热带海-气相互作用与ENSO动力学及预测方面的研究进展。其中,热带海-气相互作用部分主要涉及4个方面的内容:热带太平洋气候特征与ENSO现象、热带印度洋海温主要模态及其与太平洋相互作用、热带大西洋海温主要模态及与海盆的相互作用、中高纬度海-气系统对ENSO的影响;ENSO动力学包括7个方面的内容:基本理论的相关研究、ENSO相关的诊断与模拟研究、两类ENSO相关研究、ENSO触发机制相关研究、ENSO与其他现象的相互作用、外部强迫与大气遥相关、气候变化与ENSO响应;ENSO预测主要包括2个方面的内容:动力-统计ENSO预测方法、ENSO预测系统与应用。最后,还讨论了上述相关方面亟待解决的问题。   相似文献   

从FY-4A卫星遥感数据和GFS资料估算全天空状况下的地表长波辐射通量     

闵敏  吴晓 《气象》2020,46(3):336-345

本文介绍一种利用FY-4A成像仪遥感数据和全球预报系统(GFS)资料估算全天空地表长波辐射通量的反演方法。该方法通过辐射传输模拟和统计回归计算建立云天地表下行长波辐射通量的反演模式,并基于GFS资料处理云覆盖地区的地表上、下行长波辐射通量。这种全天空状况下两种通量的反演结合了FY-4A晴空地表长波辐射业务产品和本文反演模式处理的云天地表上、下行长波辐射通量。2018年9月1日的处理结果与Aqua/CERES同类产品相对比,精度为:RMSE=20.52 W·m^-2,R=0.9481,Bias=3.3 W·m^-2(夜间地表下行辐射通量对比);RMSE=25.58 W·m^-2,R=0.9096,Bias=5.4 W·m^-2(白天地表下行辐射通量对比);RMSE=10.97 W·m^-2,R=0.9762,Bias=-3.3 W·m^-2(夜间地表上行辐射通量对比);RMSE=19.97 W·m^-2,R=0.9283,Bias=5.0 W·m^-2(白天地表上行辐射通量对比)。这些结果表明本文发展的方法能够反演出精度较好的云天上下行长波辐射通量资料,为今后利用FY-4后续星处理生成全天空状况下的地表长波辐射通量产品奠定了理论基础。  相似文献   

Diurnal Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Western North Pacific in 2008-2010   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

SHU Hai-Long  ZHANG Qing-Hong  XU Bin 《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,6(2)

Diurnal variation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in the western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated using the high-resolution Climate Prediction Center's morphing technique (CMORPH) products obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). From January 2008 to October 2010, 72 TCs and 389 TC rainfall days were reported by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's (JTWC) best-track record. The TC rain rate was partitioned using the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT) and interpolated into Local Standard Time (LST). Harmonic analysis was applied to analyze the diurnal variation of the precipitation. Obvious diurnal cycles were seen in approximately 70% of the TC rainfall days. The harmonic amplitude and phase of the mean TC rainfall rate vary with TC intensity, life stage, season, and spatial distribution. On the basis of intensity, tropical depressions (TDs) exhibit the highest precipitation variation amplitude (PVA), at approximately 30%, while super typhoons (STs) contain the lowest PVA, at less than 22%. On the basis of lifetime stage, the PVA in the decaying stage (more than 37%) is stronger than that in the developing (less than 20%) and sustaining (28%) stages. On the basis of location, the PVA of more than 35% (less than 18%) is the highest (lowest) over the high-latitude oceanic areas (the eastern ocean of the Philippine Islands). In addition, a sub-diurnal cycle of TC rainfall occurs over the high-latitude oceans. On the basis of season, the diurnal variation is more pronounced during summer and winter, at approximately 30% and 32%, respectively, and is weaker in spring and autumn, at approximately 22% and 24%, respectively.  相似文献   

Influence of Changes in Solar Radiation on Changes of Surface Temperature in China          下载免费PDF全文

ZHANG Hu  YIN Qing  Teruyuki NAKAJIMA  Nakata Mukai MAKIKO  LU Peng  HE Jinhai 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2013,27(1):87-97

The long-term trends of total surface solar radiation(SSR),surface diffuse radiation,and surface air temperature were analyzed in this study based on updated 48-yr data from 55 observational stations in China,and then the correlation between SSR and the diurnal temperature range(DTR) was studied.The effect of total solar radiation on surface air temperature in China was investigated on the basis of the above analyses.A strong correlation between SSR and DTR was found for the period 1961-2008 in China.The highest correlation and steepest regression line slope occurred in winter,indicating that the solar radiation effect on DTR was the largest in this season.Clouds and water vapor have strong influences on both SSR and DTR,and hence on their relationship.The largest correlations between SSR and DTR occurred in wintertime in northern China,regardless of all-day(including clear days and cloudy days) or clear-day cases.Our results also showed that radiation arriving at the surface in China decreased significantly during 1961-1989(dimming period),but began to increase during 1990-2008(brightening period),in agreement with previous global studies.The reduction of total SSR offset partially the greenhouse warming during 1961-1989.However,with the increase of SSR after 1990,this offsetting effect vanished;on the contrary,it even made a contribution to the accelerated warming.Nonetheless,the greenhouse warming still played a controlling role because of the increasing of minimum and mean surface temperatures in the whole study period of 1961-2008.We estimated that the greenhouse gases alone may have caused surface temperatures to rise by 0.31-0.46℃(10 yr) 1 during 1961-2008,which is higher than previously estimated.Analysis of the corresponding changes in total solar radiation,diffuse radiation,and total cloud cover indicated that the dimming and brightening phenomena in China were likely attributable to increases in absorptive and scattering aerosols in the atmosphere,respectively.  相似文献   

Ensemble data assimilation in a simple coupled climate model: The role of ocean-atmosphere interaction     

刘征宇  武术  张绍晴  刘赟  容新尧 《大气科学进展》2013,30(5):1235-1248

A conceptual coupled ocean-atmosphere model was used to study coupled ensemble data assimilation schemes with a focus on the role of ocean-atmosphere interaction in the assimilation. The optimal scheme was the fully coupled data assimilation scheme that employs the coupled covariance matrix and assimilates observations in both the atmosphere and ocean. The assimilation of synoptic atmospheric variability that captures the temporal fluctuation of the weather noise was found to be critical for the estimation of not only the atmospheric, but also oceanic states. The synoptic atmosphere observation was especially important in the mid-latitude system, where oceanic variability is driven by weather noise. The assimilation of synoptic atmospheric variability in the coupled model improved the atmospheric variability in the analysis and the subsequent forecasts, reducing error in the surface forcing and, in turn, in the ocean state. Atmospheric observation was able to further improve the oceanic state estimation directly through the coupled covariance between the atmosphere and ocean states. Relative to the mid-latitude system, the tropical system was influenced more by ocean-atmosphere interaction and, thus, the assimilation of oceanic observation becomes more important for the estimation of the ocean and atmosphere.  相似文献   

Central Scandinavian winter precipitation variability during the past five centuries reconstructed from Pinus sylvestris tree rings     

HANS W. LINDERHOLM  DELIANG CHEN 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2005,34(1):43-52

Using Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) tree-ring data, winter (September-April) precipitation variability in west central Scandinavia was reconstructed for the past five centuries. The main growth-limiting factor for pine growing in the studied area is summer temperature, but there is an additional influence of precipitation. Using principal components analysis on three tree-ring-width chronologies, a time series was yielded that contained information on winter precipitation (P_w). Using tree rings, only a small part (20%) of the interannual P_w variability could be explained. However, better agreement between the modelled and measured P_w data on semi-decadal time scales (45% variance explained) suggests that tree-ring data from the west-central part of Scandinavia contain useful information on those time scales. The driest winters, disregarding the absolute beginning of the record, were found at the beginning of the 18th century; the last half of the 20th century seems to be the wettest, at least for the past 400 years. Since our precipitation reconstruction agrees fairly well with previously published precipitation proxies, it is suggested that tree rings may add useful information to future multi-proxy reconstructions.  相似文献   

中国降雪气候学特征   总被引：18，自引：1，他引：17  

刘玉莲  任国玉  于宏敏 《地理科学》2012,(10):1176-1185

利用逐日地面降雪观测资料,分析中国25oN以北范围内降雪量、降雪日数、雪带分布和各强度降雪的气候学特征,得到以下结论:①雪季长度与年降雪日数在东部呈纬向分布,大兴安岭北部最长(>210 d),长江以南最短(常年无雪或偶尔降雪);在西部青海省南部和西藏自治区北部最长(>300 d),滇、川、藏交界处及新疆自治区北部较长,南疆较短(<60 d)。年降雪量东南部最少,东北和西北北部较多(>30 mm),青海和西藏降雪量最多(>60 mm)。平均降雪强度江淮一带最大。②根据雪季降雪频次划分中国的雪带,东北大部、内蒙自治区东部、新疆北部、青藏高原大部、秦岭等地区为常年多雪带;长江以南的滇南、四川盆地、江浙沿海等地区为永久无雪带;其余地区为常年降雪带和偶尔降雪带。③不同区域各级降雪日数占总降雪日数的比例都是暴雪日数最少,大雪日数其次,小雪日数最多;但中雪降雪量占总降雪量的比例在东北北部、华北、西北、新疆、东南、青藏高原东部等区域仅高于小雪降雪量,而在黄-淮地区仅次于暴雪降雪量。④降雪年内分配在东北北部、西北、新疆、青藏高原东部等地区都呈双峰型,最多雪时节在早冬和晚冬、早春,隆冬时节并不是降雪最多时间,黄-淮和东南地区呈单峰型,东南地区峰值更陡。⑤总降雪日数和除暴雪外的各等级降雪日数与地理位置关系较明显,在中国东部主要随着纬度升高增加,在中国西部随海拔高度增加而增加;随着纬度升高,东部和西部的总降雪强度都减小,西部的小雪强度也减小。  相似文献   

夏季西太平洋副热带高压的不同类型与中国汛期大尺度旱涝的分布   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6  

赵俊虎  封国林  杨杰  支蓉  王启光 《气象学报》2012,70(5):1021-1031

利用历史数据,研究了西太平洋副热带高压指数的特征,证实脊线指数和西伸脊点指数可以较好地描述西太平洋副热带高压,同时也指出这两个指数的年际和年代际变化及其不同的配置,是造成中国夏季降水时空分布和旱涝异常的复杂性、多变性的主要原因之一。据此,将西太平洋副热带高压西伸脊点指数和脊线指数的距平投影到二维平面上,对西太平洋副热带高压进行了分类,并对其各种类型下中国夏季降水进行了合成分析,发现夏季西太平洋副热带高压西伸脊点和脊线不同配置下中国夏季降水的总体分布具有明显的规律性:在西太平洋副热带高压脊线偏北的情况下,夏季降水总体表现出南北两条雨带;在西太平洋副热带高压脊线正常的情况下,夏季降水总体表现为北多南少,长江以北降水偏多;在西太平洋副热带高压脊线偏南的情况下,夏季降水总体表现为南多北少,长江流域及其以南地区降水偏多;上述3种情况下西伸脊点越偏西,降水范围越大。此外,通过计算1951—2010年各年夏季降水实况与其西太平洋副热带高压所属年份夏季降水合成的距平相关系数,发现同一类型下各年夏季降水与其合成分布总体相似,说明了西太平洋副热带高压位置对中国降水具有明显的影响,同时也说明此种分类具有一定的合理性。最后,通过对9种西太平洋副热带高压类型下北半球夏季500hPa高度场和850hPa风场距平分别进行合成,对不同西太平洋副热带高压类型下中国夏季降水的大尺度环流背景和可能机理进行了分析。  相似文献   

山西沙尘天气的相关气候因子分析及预测模型的建立     

刘瑞兰  任国玉  吴占华 《干旱气象》2009,27(2):111-117

对山西沙尘天气与蒙古国的降水、我国北方积雪日数、青藏高原积雪日数和表征气候异常变化信号的大气-海洋环流因子SOI指数的关系进行了分析,揭示了全球准周期性变化对沙尘天气趋势的主导性作用.得出蒙古国西部前一年降水对山西省的沙尘天气具有较好的指示性;青藏高原前一年冬季积雪日数和山西省的年沙尘日数呈较好的负相关性;当前冬青藏高原积雪日数多时,山西省少沙尘,反之,多沙尘.就我国北方特别是山西省上游地区的积雪日数而言,指示性比较强的区域分布在内蒙古、甘肃、新疆.这些区域内某些站点前一年冬季的平均积雪日数多时,山西省少沙尘,反之,多沙尘.此外,山西沙尘还与SOI指数有显著的滞后2 a的正响应关系,与SOI有滞后两年正相关的站点主要分布在中东部和东北部.在要素相关分析的基础上,综合各类因子制作了山西省沙尘预测模型,以期为沙尘天气的短期预测工作提供一些参考依据.  相似文献   

SF6气体的辐射强迫和全球增温潜能的研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴金秀  肖稳安  张华 《大气科学》2009,33(4):825-834

IPCC(2007)指出, 六氟化硫(SF6) 作为臭氧消耗物质 (ODSs) 的部分替代物质, 近年来排放量大大增加。它作为控制排放的人造长寿命温室气体之一已经被列入《京都议定书》。但是, 目前在臭氧消耗物质替代品中, 对SF6的辐射强迫和全球增温潜能的研究较少, 而且所用的谱吸收资料陈旧。本文采用最新的分子吸收数据库HITRAN2004中的SF6的吸收截面数据, 利用Shi(1981) 的吸收系数重排法, 建立了SF6的相关k分布的辐射计算方案, 在此基础上研究了SF6在晴空大气下的辐射效率和全球增温潜能, 并首次计算了SF6的全球温变潜能, 与其全球增温潜能进行了比较。本文的研究表明: SF6的辐射效率为0.512 W/m2, 经过大气寿命调整之后的辐射效率为0.506 W/m2, 二者差别不大; 根据IPCC (2007) 给出的排放情景, 到2100年, SF6在大气中的体积分数将达到35×10-12～70×10-12, 引起的相应辐射强迫将在0.004～0.028 W/m2之间变化; 相对于二氧化碳的100年全球增温潜能为2.33×104, 比IPCC(2007)的结果大2.2%; 100年的持续排放的全球增温潜能为2.26×104, 与其他长寿命人造温室气体一道, 其对全球变暖的长期影响不容忽视。  相似文献